Predicting Outcomes Following Lower Extremity Endovascular Revascularization Using Machine Learning.

BACKGROUND: Lower extremity endovascular revascularization for peripheral artery disease carries nonnegligible perioperative risks; however, outcome prediction tools remain limited. Using machine learning, we developed automated algorithms that predict 30-day outcomes following lower extremity endovascular revascularization. METHODS AND RESULTS: The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program targeted vascular database was used to identify patients who underwent lower extremity endovascular revascularization (angioplasty, stent, or atherectomy) for peripheral artery disease between 2011 and 2021. Input features included 38 preoperative demographic/clinical variables. The primary outcome was 30-day postprocedural major adverse limb event (composite of major reintervention, untreated loss of patency, or major amputation) or death. Data were split into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Using 10-fold cross-validation, 6 machine learning models were trained using preoperative features. The primary model evaluation metric was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Overall, 21 886 patients were included, and 30-day major adverse limb event/death occurred in 1964 (9.0%) individuals. The best performing model for predicting 30-day major adverse limb event/death was extreme gradient boosting, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.92-0.94). In comparison, logistic regression had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.70-0.74). The calibration plot showed good agreement between predicted and observed event probabilities with a Brier score of 0.09. The top 3 predictive features in our algorithm were (1) chronic limb-threatening ischemia, (2) tibial intervention, and (3) congestive heart failure. CONCLUSIONS: Our machine learning models accurately predict 30-day outcomes following lower extremity endovascular revascularization using preoperative data with good discrimination and calibration. Prospective validation is warranted to assess for generalizability and external validity.

Predicting the Need for Subclavian Artery Revascularization in Thoracic Endovascular Aortic Repair: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to investigate the effectiveness of left subclavian artery revascularization compared to non-revascularization in thoracic endovascular aortic repair, and to summarize the current evidence on its indications. METHODS: A computerized search was conducted across multiple databases, including MEDLINE, SCOPUS, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science, for studies published up to November 2023. Study selection, data abstraction, and quality assessment (using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale) were independently conducted by two reviewers, with a third author resolving discrepancies. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using random-effects models and publication bias was assessed using funnel plots. RESULTS: In the 76 included studies, left subclavian artery revascularization was associated with reduced risks of stroke (OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.45-0.98; n=15331), spinal cord ischemia (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.56-0.99; n=11995), and arm ischemia (OR, 0.09; 95% CI, 0.01-0.59; n=8438). No significant reduction in paraplegia (OR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.21-1.47; n=1802) or mortality (OR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.53-1.12; n=11831) was observed. Moreover, the risk of endoleak was comparable in both groups (OR, 1.25; 95% CI, 0.55-2.84; p=0.60; n=793), whereas the risk of reintervention was significantly higher in the revascularization group (OR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.03-3.83; p=0.04; n=272). Both groups had similar risks of major (OR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.19-1.09; p=0.08; n=1113), minor (OR, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.01-3.45; p=0.27; n=183), renal (OR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.12-3.06; p=0.55; n=310), and pulmonary (OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.16-2.15; p=0.42; n=8083) complications. The most frequent indications for left subclavian artery revascularization were primary prevention of spinal cord ischemia, augmentation of the landing zone, and primary stroke prevention. CONCLUSIONS: Left subclavian artery revascularization in thoracic endovascular aortic repair was associated with reduced neurological complications but was not found to impact mortality. The study highlights important indications for revascularization as well as significant predictors of complications, providing a basis for clinical decision-making and future research.

Temporal trends in hemodialysis access creation during the fistula first era.

OBJECTIVE: Although forearm arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) are the preferred initial vascular access for hemodialysis based on national guidelines, there are no population-level studies evaluating trends in creation of forearm vs upper arm AVFs and arteriovenous grafts (AVGs). The purpose of this study was to report temporal trends in first-time permanent hemodialysis access type, and to assess the effect of national initiatives on rates of AVF placement. METHODS: Retrospective cross-sectional study (2012-2022) utilizing the Vascular Quality Initiative database. All patients older than 18 years with creation of first-time upper extremity surgical hemodialysis access were included. Anatomic location of the AVF or AVG (forearm vs upper arm) was defined based on inflow artery, outflow vein, and presumed cannulation zone. Primary analysis examined temporal trends in rates of forearm vs upper arm AVFs and AVGs using time series analyses (modified Mann-Kendall test). Subgroup analyses examined rates of access configuration stratified by age, sex, race, dialysis, and socioeconomic status. Interrupted time series analysis was performed to assess the effect of the 2015 Fistula First Catheter Last initiative on rates of AVFs. RESULTS: Of the 52,170 accesses, 57.9% were upper arm AVFs, 25.2% were forearm AVFs, 15.4% were upper arm AVGs, and 1.5% were forearm AVGs. From 2012 to 2022, there was no significant change in overall rates of forearm or upper arm AVFs. There was a numerical increase in upper arm AVGs (13.9 to 18.2 per 100; P = .09), whereas forearm AVGs significantly declined (1.8 to 0.7 per 100; P = .02). In subgroup analyses, we observed a decrease in forearm AVFs among men (33.1 to 28.7 per 100; P = .04) and disadvantaged (Area Deprivation Index percentile ≥50) patients (29.0 to 20.7 per 100; P = .04), whereas female (17.2 to 23.1 per 100; P = .03), Black (15.6 to 24.5 per 100; P < .01), elderly (age ≥80 years) (18.7 to 32.5 per 100; P < .01), and disadvantaged (13.6 to 20.5 per 100; P < .01) patients had a significant increase in upper arm AVGs. The Fistula First Catheter Last initiative had no effect on the rate of AVF placement (83.2 to 83.7 per 100; P=.37). CONCLUSIONS: Despite national initiatives to promote autogenous vascular access, the rates of first-time AVFs have remained relatively constant, with forearm AVFs only representing one-quarter of all permanent surgical accesses. Furthermore, elderly, Black, female, and disadvantaged patients saw an increase in upper arm AVGs. Further efforts to elucidate factors associated with forearm AVF placement, as well as potential physician, center, and regional variation is warranted.

Predicting outcomes following lower extremity open revascularization using machine learning.

Lower extremity open revascularization is a treatment option for peripheral artery disease that carries significant peri-operative risks; however, outcome prediction tools remain limited. Using machine learning (ML), we developed automated algorithms that predict 30-day outcomes following lower extremity open revascularization. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program targeted vascular database was used to identify patients who underwent lower extremity open revascularization for chronic atherosclerotic disease between 2011 and 2021. Input features included 37 pre-operative demographic/clinical variables. The primary outcome was 30-day major adverse limb event (MALE; composite of untreated loss of patency, major reintervention, or major amputation) or death. Our data were split into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Using tenfold cross-validation, we trained 6 ML models. Overall, 24,309 patients were included. The primary outcome of 30-day MALE or death occurred in 2349 (9.3%) patients. Our best performing prediction model was XGBoost, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% CI) of 0.93 (0.92-0.94). The calibration plot showed good agreement between predicted and observed event probabilities with a Brier score of 0.08. Our ML algorithm has potential for important utility in guiding risk mitigation strategies for patients being considered for lower extremity open revascularization to improve outcomes.

Predicting Outcomes Following Endovascular Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair Using Machine Learning.

OBJECTIVE: To develop machine learning (ML) models that predict outcomes following endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). BACKGROUND: EVAR carries non-negligible perioperative risks; however, there are no widely used outcome prediction tools. METHODS: The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program targeted database was used to identify patients who underwent EVAR for infrarenal AAA between 2011 and 2021. Input features included 36 preoperative variables. The primary outcome was 30-day major adverse cardiovascular event (composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, or death). Data were split into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Using 10-fold cross-validation, 6 ML models were trained using preoperative features. The primary model evaluation metric was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Model robustness was evaluated with calibration plot and Brier score. Subgroup analysis was performed to assess model performance based on age, sex, race, ethnicity, and prior AAA repair. RESULTS: Overall, 16,282 patients were included. The primary outcome of 30-day major adverse cardiovascular event occurred in 390 (2.4%) patients. Our best-performing prediction model was XGBoost, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% CI) of 0.95 (0.94-0.96) compared with logistic regression [0.72 [0.70-0.74)]. The calibration plot showed good agreement between predicted and observed event probabilities with a Brier score of 0.06. Model performance remained robust on all subgroup analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our newer ML models accurately predict 30-day outcomes following EVAR using preoperative data and perform better than logistic regression. Our automated algorithms can guide risk mitigation strategies for patients being considered for EVAR.

Predicting recurrent interventions after radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula creation with machine learning and the PREDICT-AVF web app.

OBJECTIVE: Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (KDOQI) guidelines discourage ongoing access salvage attempts after two interventions prior to successful use or more than three interventions per year overall. The goal was to develop a tool for prediction of radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula (AVF) intervention requirements to help guide shared decision-making about access appropriateness. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of 914 adult patients in the United States and Canada undergoing radiocephalic AVF creation at one of the 39 centers participating in the PATENCY-1 or -2 trials. Clinical data, including demographics, comorbidities, access history, anatomic features, and post-operative ultrasound measurements at 4-6 and 12 weeks were used to predict recurrent interventions required at 1 year postoperatively. Cox proportional hazards, random survival forest, pooled logistic, and elastic net recurrent event survival prediction models were built using a combination of baseline characteristics and post-operative ultrasound measurements. A web application was created, which generates patient-specific predictions contextualized with the KDOQI guidelines. RESULTS: Patients underwent an estimated 1.04 (95% CI 0.94-1.13) interventions in the first year. Mean (SD) age was 57 (13) years; 22% were female. Radiocephalic AVFs were created at the snuffbox (2%), wrist (74%), or proximal forearm (24%). Using baseline characteristics, the random survival forest model performed best, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.75 (95% CI 0.67-0.82) at 1 year. The addition of ultrasound information to baseline characteristics did not substantially improve performance; however, Cox models using either 4-6- or 12-week post-operative ultrasound information alone had the best discrimination performance, with AUROCs of 0.77 (0.70-0.85) and 0.76 (0.70-0.83) at 1 year. The interactive web application is deployed at https://predict-avf.com. CONCLUSIONS: The PREDICT-AVF web application can guide patient counseling and guideline-concordant shared decision-making as part of a patient-centered end-stage kidney disease life plan.

Contemporary outcomes of distal radial artery ligation for access related hand ischemia.

OBJECTIVES: Access related hand ischemia (ARHI) is a rare albeit morbid complication of hemodialysis access creation. Distal radial artery ligation (DRAL) has been described as a strategy to improve perfusion to the hand while maintaining the access. The objective of this study was to report longitudinal outcomes of DRAL for ARHI. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study (2015-2021) of all patients who underwent DRAL for ARHI at a tertiary care vascular center. Subjects were identified using the Mass General Brigham clinical data warehouse and data collection was supplemented with chart adjudication. Outcomes captured included 30-day complications and improvement in ARHI-related symptoms at 1 year. RESULTS: Thirty-one patients were included. Mean (SD) age was 59.9 (14.5) and 67.7% were male. Wrist radial-cephalic (74.2%) and proximal radial-cephalic (9.7%) configurations were most common. ARHI severity was: 9.7% stage 1 (retrograde flow without symptoms); 38.7% stage 2 (pain during exercise or dialysis); 41.9% stage 3 (pain at rest); and 9.7% stage 4 (tissue loss). High flow was present in 35.5% of patients at baseline with median (IQR) flow of 1670 ml/min (1478-1954). After DRAL, median (IQR) flow reduction in the high flow group was 953 ml/min (645-993); concurrent precision banding was performed in 29% to reduce flow. The 30-day risk of complication was 3.2% (n = 1 access thrombosis). During follow-up, 82.1% showed improvement in symptoms and 3.6% of patients needed an additional procedure for ARHI. Carpal tunnel surgery was required for improvement in 7.1% of patients and was suspected as the culprit of symptoms in 7.1%. CONCLUSION: Distal radial artery ligation for ARHI is safe and can improve ischemic symptoms in most patients while salvaging access function. Precision banding can serve as a useful adjunct in high flow accesses. Carpal tunnel syndrome should be considered as part of the differential diagnosis of hand pain in this population.

Predicting Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events Following Carotid Endarterectomy Using Machine Learning.

Background Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) is a major vascular operation for stroke prevention that carries significant perioperative risks; however, outcome prediction tools remain limited. The authors developed machine learning algorithms to predict outcomes following CEA. Methods and Results The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program targeted vascular database was used to identify patients who underwent CEA between 2011 and 2021. Input features included 36 preoperative demographic/clinical variables. The primary outcome was 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events (composite of stroke, myocardial infarction, or death). The data were split into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Using 10-fold cross-validation, 6 machine learning models were trained using preoperative features. The primary metric for evaluating model performance was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Model robustness was evaluated with calibration plot and Brier score. Overall, 38 853 patients underwent CEA during the study period. Thirty-day major adverse cardiovascular events occurred in 1683 (4.3%) patients. The best performing prediction model was XGBoost, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.90-0.92). In comparison, logistic regression had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.62 (95% CI, 0.60-0.64), and existing tools in the literature demonstrate area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values ranging from 0.58 to 0.74. The calibration plot showed good agreement between predicted and observed event probabilities with a Brier score of 0.02. The strongest predictive feature in our algorithm was carotid symptom status. Conclusions The machine learning models accurately predicted 30-day outcomes following CEA using preoperative data and performed better than existing tools. They have potential for important utility in guiding risk-mitigation strategies to improve outcomes for patients being considered for CEA.

Predicting outcomes following open revascularization for aortoiliac occlusive disease using machine learning.

OBJECTIVE: Open surgical treatment options for aortoiliac occlusive disease carry significant perioperative risks; however, outcome prediction tools remain limited. Using machine learning (ML), we developed automated algorithms that predict 30-day outcomes following open aortoiliac revascularization. METHODS: The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) targeted vascular database was used to identify patients who underwent open aortoiliac revascularization for atherosclerotic disease between 2011 and 2021. Input features included 38 preoperative demographic/clinical variables. The primary outcome was 30-day major adverse limb event (MALE; composite of untreated loss of patency, major reintervention, or major amputation) or death. The 30-day secondary outcomes were individual components of the primary outcome, major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE; composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, or death), individual components of MACE, wound complication, bleeding, other morbidity, non-home discharge, and unplanned readmission. Our data were split into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Using 10-fold cross-validation, we trained six ML models using preoperative features. The primary model evaluation metric was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Model robustness was evaluated with calibration plot and Brier score. Variable importance scores were calculated to determine the top 10 predictive features. Performance was assessed on subgroups based on age, sex, race, ethnicity, symptom status, procedure type, and urgency. RESULTS: Overall, 9649 patients were included. The primary outcome of 30-day MALE or death occurred in 1021 patients (10.6%). Our best performing prediction model for 30-day MALE or death was XGBoost, achieving an AUROC of 0.95 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94-0.96). In comparison, logistic regression had an AUROC of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.77-0.81). For 30-day secondary outcomes, XGBoost achieved AUROCs between 0.87 and 0.97 (untreated loss of patency [0.95], major reintervention [0.88], major amputation [0.96], death [0.97], MACE [0.95], myocardial infarction [0.88], stroke [0.93], wound complication [0.94], bleeding [0.87], other morbidity [0.96], non-home discharge [0.90], and unplanned readmission [0.91]). The calibration plot showed good agreement between predicted and observed event probabilities with a Brier score of 0.05. The strongest predictive feature in our algorithm was chronic limb-threatening ischemia. Model performance remained robust on all subgroup analyses of specific demographic/clinical populations. CONCLUSIONS: Our ML models accurately predict 30-day outcomes following open aortoiliac revascularization using preoperative data, performing better than logistic regression. They have potential for important utility in guiding risk-mitigation strategies for patients being considered for open aortoiliac revascularization to improve outcomes.

Comparative effectiveness of bovine carotid artery xenograft and polytetrafluoroethylene in hemodialysis access revision.

BACKGROUND: When hemodialysis arteriovenous accesses fail, autogenous options are often limited. Non-autogenous conduit choices include bovine carotid artery xenografts (BCAG) and expanded polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE), yet their comparative effectiveness in hemodialysis access revision remains largely unknown. METHODS: A cohort study was performed from a prospectively collected institutional database from August 2010 to July 2021. All patients undergoing an arteriovenous access revision with either BCAG or PTFE were followed for up to 3 years from their index access revision. Revision was defined as graft placement to address a specific problem of an existing arteriovenous access while maintaining one or more of the key components of the original access (e.g. inflow, outflow, and cannulation zone). Outcomes were measured starting at the date of the index revision procedure. The primary outcome was loss of secondary patency at 3 years. Secondary outcomes included loss of post-intervention primary patency, rates of recurrent interventions, and 30-day complications. Pooled logistic regression was used to estimate inverse probability weighted marginal structural models for the time-to-event outcomes of interest. RESULTS: A total of 159 patients were included in the study, and 58% received access revision with BCAG. Common indications for revision included worn out cannulation zones (32%), thrombosis (18%), outflow augmentation (16%), and inflow augmentation (13%). Estimated risk of secondary patency loss at 3 years was lower in the BCAG group (8.6%, 3.9-15.1) compared to the PTFE group (24.8%, 12.4-38.7). Patients receiving BCAG experienced a 60% decreased relative risk of secondary patency loss at 3 years (risk ratio 0.40, 0.14-0.86). Recurrent interventions occurred at similar rates in the BCAG and PTFE groups, with 1.86 (1.31-2.43) and 1.60 (1.07-2.14) interventions at 1 year, respectively (hazard ratio 1.22, 0.74-1.96). CONCLUSIONS: Under the conditions of this contemporary cohort study, use of BCAG in upper extremity hemodialysis access revision decreased access abandonment when compared to PTFE.

Staged autogenous to prosthetic hemodialysis access creation strategy to maximize forearm options.

OBJECTIVE: When an adequate cephalic vein is not available for fistula construction, surgeons often turn to basilic vein or prosthetic constructions. Single-stage forearm prosthetic hemodialysis accesses are associated with poor durability, and upper arm non-autogenous access options are often limited by axillary outflow failure, which inevitably drives transition to the contralateral arm or lower extremity. We hypothesized that initial creation of a modest flow proximal forearm arterial-venous anastomosis to dilate ("develop") inflow and outflow vessels, followed by a planned second-stage procedure to create a cannulation zone with a prosthetic graft in the forearm, would result in reliable and durable hemodialysis access in patients with limited options. METHODS: We performed an institutional cohort study from 2017 to 2021 using a prospectively maintained database supplemented with adjudicated chart review. Patients without traditional autogenous hemodialysis access options in the forearm underwent an initial non-wrist arterial-venous anastomosis creation in the forearm as a first stage, followed by a second-stage interposition graft sewn to the existing inflow and venous outflow segments to create a useable cannulation zone in the forearm while leveraging vascular development. Outcomes included time from second-stage access creation to loss of primary and secondary patency, frequency of subsequent interventions, and perioperative complications. RESULTS: The cohort included 23 patients; first-stage radial artery-based (74%) configurations were more common than brachial artery-based (26%). Mean age was 63 years (standard deviation, 14 years), and 65% were female. Median follow-up was 340 days (interquartile range [IQR], 169-701 days). Median time to cannulation from second-stage procedure was 28 days (IQR, 18-53 days). Primary, primary assisted, and secondary patency at 1 year was 16.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.3%-45.8%), 34.6% (95% CI, 15.2%-66.2%), and 95.7% (95% CI, 81.3%-99.7%), respectively. Subsequent interventions occurred at a rate of 3.02 (IQR, 1.0-4.97) per person-year, with endovascular thrombectomy with or without angioplasty/stenting (70.9%) being the most common. There were no cases of steal syndrome. Infection occurred in two cases and were managed with antibiotics alone. CONCLUSIONS: For patients without adequate distal autogenous access options, staged prosthetic graft placement in the forearm offers few short-term complications and excellent durability with active surveillance while strategically preserving the upper arm for future constructions.

Developing Validated Tools to Identify Pulmonary Embolism in Electronic Databases: Rationale and Design of the PE-EHR+ Study.

BACKGROUND: Contemporary pulmonary embolism (PE) research, in many cases, relies on data from electronic health records (EHRs) and administrative databases that use International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes. Natural language processing (NLP) tools can be used for automated chart review and patient identification. However, there remains uncertainty with the validity of ICD-10 codes or NLP algorithms for patient identification. METHODS: The PE-EHR+ study has been designed to validate ICD-10 codes as Principal Discharge Diagnosis, or Secondary Discharge Diagnoses, as well as NLP tools set out in prior studies to identify patients with PE within EHRs. Manual chart review by two independent abstractors by predefined criteria will be the reference standard. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values will be determined. We will assess the discriminatory function of code subgroups for intermediate- and high-risk PE. In addition, accuracy of NLP algorithms to identify PE from radiology reports will be assessed. RESULTS: A total of 1,734 patients from the Mass General Brigham health system have been identified. These include 578 with ICD-10 Principal Discharge Diagnosis codes for PE, 578 with codes in the secondary position, and 578 without PE codes during the index hospitalization. Patients within each group were selected randomly from the entire pool of patients at the Mass General Brigham health system. A smaller subset of patients will also be identified from the Yale-New Haven Health System. Data validation and analyses will be forthcoming. CONCLUSIONS: The PE-EHR+ study will help validate efficient tools for identification of patients with PE in EHRs, improving the reliability of efficient observational studies or randomized trials of patients with PE using electronic databases.

Evaluating national guideline concordance of recurrent interventions after radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula creation.

OBJECTIVE: Radiocephalic arteriovenous fistulas have been historically perceived as requiring multiple follow-up procedural interventions to achieve maturation and maintain patency. Recent clinical practice guidelines from the National Kidney Foundation's Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (KDOQI) emphasize a patient-centered hemodialysis access strategy with new maximum targets for intervention rates, potentially conflicting with concomitant recommendations to prioritize autogenous forearm hemodialysis access creation. The present descriptive study seeks to assess whether radiocephalic fistulas can meet the KDOQI guideline benchmarks for interventions following access creation, and to elucidate clinical and anatomic characteristics associated with the timing and frequency of interventions following radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula creation. METHODS: Prospective patient-level data from the multicenter PATENCY-1 and PATENCY-2 randomized trials, which enrolled patients undergoing new radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula creation, was analyzed (ClinicalTrials.govNCT02110901 and NCT02414841). The primary outcome was the rate of interventions at 1 year postoperatively. Incidence rates were calculated, and time to surgical or endovascular intervention following fistula creation was modeled using recurrent event extensions of the Cox proportional hazards model. Confidence intervals at the 95% level were calculated using nonparametric bootstrapping. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 914 patients; mean age was 57 years (standard deviation, 13 years), and 22% were female. Median follow-up was 707 days (interquartile range, 447-1066 days). The incidence of interventions per person-year was 1.04 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.95-1.13) overall; 1.10 (95% CI, 0.98-1.21) before fistula use, and 0.96 (95% CI, 0.82-1.11) after fistula use. The most common interventions overall were balloon angioplasty (54.9% of all interventions), venous side-branch ligation (16.4%), and open revisions (eg, proximalization from snuffbox to wrist, 16.4%). The locations requiring balloon angioplasty included the juxta-anastomotic segment (51.7% of angioplasties), the outflow vein (29.2%), the inflow artery (14.8%), the central veins (3.8%), and the cephalic arch (0.5%). Common indications were to restore or maintain patency (75.6% of all interventions), assist maturation (14.9%), improve depth (4.4%), or improve augmentation (3.0%). In the multivariable regression analysis, female sex (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.21; 95% CI, 1.05-1.45), diabetes (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.01-1.46), and intraoperative vein diameter <3.0 mm (vs ≥4.0 mm: HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.02-1.66) were associated with earlier and more frequent interventions. Patients not on hemodialysis at the time of fistula creation underwent less frequent interventions (HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.59-0.81). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with radiocephalic arteriovenous fistulas can expect to undergo one intervention, on average, in the first year after creation, which aligns with current KDOQI guidelines. Patients already requiring hemodialysis, female patients, patients with diabetes, and patients with intraoperative vein diameters <3.0 mm were at increased risk for repeated intervention. No subgroup exceeded guideline-suggested maximum thresholds for recurrent interventions. Overall, the results demonstrate that creation of radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula remains a guideline-concordant strategy when part of an end-stage kidney disease life-plan in appropriately selected patients.

Predicting radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula success with machine learning.

After creation of a new arteriovenous fistula (AVF), assessment of readiness for use is an important clinical task. Accurate prediction of successful use is challenging, and augmentation of the physical exam with ultrasound has become routine. Herein, we propose a point-of-care tool based on machine learning to enhance prediction of successful unassisted radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula (AVF) use. Our analysis includes pooled patient-level data from 704 patients undergoing new radiocephalic AVF creation, eligible for hemodialysis, and enrolled in the 2014-2019 international multicenter PATENCY-1 or PATENCY-2 randomized controlled trials. The primary outcome being predicted is successful unassisted AVF use within 1-year, defined as 2-needle cannulation for hemodialysis for ≥90 days without preceding intervention. Logistic, penalized logistic (lasso and elastic net), decision tree, random forest, and boosted tree classification models were built with a training, tuning, and testing paradigm using a combination of baseline clinical characteristics and 4-6 week ultrasound parameters. Performance assessment includes receiver operating characteristic curves, precision-recall curves, calibration plots, and decision curves. All modeling approaches except the decision tree have similar discrimination performance and comparable net-benefit (area under the ROC curve 0.78-0.81, accuracy 69.1-73.6%). Model performance is superior to Kidney Disease Outcome Quality Initiative and University of Alabama at Birmingham ultrasound threshold criteria. The lasso model is presented as the final model due to its parsimony, retaining only 3 covariates: larger outflow vein diameter, higher flow volume, and absence of >50% luminal stenosis. A point-of-care online calculator is deployed to facilitate AVF assessment in the clinic.

Radiocephalic Arteriovenous Fistula Patency and Use: A Post Hoc Analysis of Multicenter Randomized Clinical Trials.

We sought to confirm and extend the understanding of clinical outcomes following creation of a common distal autogenous access, the radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula (RCAVF). Background: Interdisciplinary guidelines recommend distal autogenous arteriovenous fistulae as the preferred hemodialysis (HD) access, yet uncertainty about durability and function present barriers to adoption. Methods: Pooled data from the 2014-2019 multicenter randomized-controlled PATENCY-1 and PATENCY-2 trials were analyzed. New RC-AVFs were created in 914 patients, and outcomes were tracked prospectively for 3-years. Cox proportional hazards and Fine-Gray regression models were constructed to explore patient, anatomic, and procedural associations with access patency and use. Results: Mean (SD) age was 57 (13) years; 45% were on dialysis at baseline. Kaplan-Meier estimates of 3-year primary, primary-assisted, and secondary patency were 27.6%, 56.4%, and 66.6%, respectively. Cause-specific 1-year cumulative incidence estimates of unassisted and overall RC-AVF use were 46.8% and 66.9%, respectively. Patients with larger baseline cephalic vein diameters had improved primary (per mm, hazard ratio [HR] 0.89, 95% confidence intervals 0.81-0.99), primary-assisted (HR 0.75, 0.64-0.87), and secondary (HR 0.67, 0.57-0.80) patency; and higher rates of unassisted (subdistribution hazard ratio 1.21, 95% confidence intervals 1.02-1.44) and overall RCAVF use (subdistribution hazard ratio 1.26, 1.11-1.45). Similarly, patients not requiring HD at the time of RCAVF creation had better primary, primary-assisted, and secondary patency. Successful RCAVF use occurred at increased rates when accesses were created using regional anesthesia and at higher volume centers. Conclusions: These insights can inform patient counseling and guide shared decision-making regarding HD access options when developing an individualized end-stage kidney disease life-plan.

Canadian Cardiovascular Society 2022 Guidelines for Peripheral Arterial Disease.

Patients with widespread atherosclerosis such as peripheral artery disease (PAD) have a high risk of cardiovascular and limb symptoms and complications, which affects their quality of life and longevity. Over the past 2 decades there have been substantial advances in diagnostics, pharmacotherapy, and interventions including endovascular and open surgical to aid in the management of PAD patients. To summarize the evidence regarding approaches to diagnosis, risk stratification, medical and intervention treatments for patients with PAD, guided by the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) framework, evidence was synthesized, and assessed for quality, and recommendations provided-categorized as weak or strong for each prespecified research question. Fifty-six recommendations were made, with 27% (15/56) graded as strong recommendations with high-quality evidence, 14% (8/56) were designated as strong recommendations with moderate-quality evidence, and 20% (11/56) were strong recommendations with low quality of evidence. Conversely 39% (22/56) were classified as weak recommendations. For PAD patients, strong recommendations on the basis of high-quality evidence, include smoking cessation interventions, structured exercise programs for claudication, lipid-modifying therapy, antithrombotic therapy with a single antiplatelet agent or dual pathway inhibition with low-dose rivaroxaban and aspirin; treatment of hypertension with an angiotensin converting enzyme or angiotensin receptor blocker; and for those with diabetes, a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor should be considered. Furthermore, autogenous grafts are more effective than prosthetic grafts for surgical bypasses for claudication or chronic limb-threatening ischemia involving the popliteal or distal arteries. Other recommendations indicated that new endovascular techniques and hybrid procedures be considered in patients with favourable anatomy and patient factors, and finally, the evidence for perioperative risk stratification for PAD patients who undergo surgery remains weak.

Contemporary indications for open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair in the endovascular era.

OBJECTIVE: Despite the emergence of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) as the most common approach to abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, open aneurysm repair (OAR) remains an important option. This study seeks to define the indications for OAR in the EVAR era and how these indicatioxns effect outcomes. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed of all OAR at a single institution from 2004 to 2019. Preoperative computed tomography scans and operative records were assessed to determine the indication for OAR. These reasons were categorized into anatomical contraindications, systemic factors (connective tissue disorders, contraindication to contrast dye), and patient or surgeon preference (patients who were candidates for both EVAR and OAR). Perioperative and long-term outcomes were compared between the groups. RESULTS: We included 370 patients in the analysis; 71.6% (265/370) had at least one anatomic contraindication to EVAR and 36% had two or more contraindications. The most common anatomic contraindications were short aortic neck length (51.6%), inadequate distal seal zone (19.2%), and inadequate access vessels (15.7%). The major perioperative complication rate was 18.1% and the 30-day mortality was 3.0%. No single anatomic factor was identified as a predictor of perioperative complications. Sixty-one patients (16.5%) underwent OAR based on patient or surgeon preference; these patients were younger, had lower incidences of coronary artery disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and were less likely to require suprarenal cross-clamping compared with patients who had anatomic and/or systemic contraindications to EVAR. The patient or surgeon preference group had a lower incidence of perioperative major complications (8.2% vs 20.1%; P = .034), shorter length of stay (6 days vs 8 days; P < .001) and no 30-day mortalities. The multivariable adjusted risk for 15-year mortality was lower for patient or surgeon preference patients (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.44; 95% confidence interval, 0.24-0.80; P = .007) compared with those anatomic or systemic contraindications. CONCLUSIONS: Within a population of patients who did not meet instruction for use criteria for EVAR, no single anatomic contraindication was a marker for worse outcomes with OAR. Patients who were candidates for both aortic repair approaches but elected to undergo OAR owing to patient or surgeon preference have very low 30-day mortality and morbidity, and superior long-term survival rates compared with those patients who underwent OAR owing to anatomic and/or systemic contraindications to EVAR.

Trends in operative case volumes of Canadian vascular surgery trainees.

OBJECTIVE: Vascular surgery has evolved with increasing use of endovascular therapies and a decline in open surgery. The influence of these changes, in addition to a new vascular surgery training program introduced in 2012, on case volumes of vascular trainees is not known. We sought to evaluate trends in operative case volumes of Canadian vascular surgery trainees. METHODS: A survey was administered to graduates of the Canadian Royal College-accredited Vascular Fellowships (VFs) and Integrated Vascular Surgery Residency (IVSR) programs (2007-2019) to record cases performed during their final 2 years of training. Procedures of interest were open abdominal aortic aneurysm (oAAA) repair, open thoracic/thoracoabdominal aortic (oTAA/TAAA) repair, lower extremity bypass (LEB), carotid endarterectomy (CEA), lower extremity endovascular intervention (LEEI), and endovascular abdominal, advanced, and thoracic aortic repair (EVAR, aEVAR, and TEVAR). Case volumes were analyzed overall, and by graduation year, type of training program, and resident demographics. RESULTS: A total of 60 participants (10% female) from all the 10 Canadian training institutions responded (response rate, 63%). There was a declining trend in overall procedures performed since the introduction of IVSR in 2012 (median, 427 [interquartile range (IQR), 304-496] in 2007-2012 vs median, 342 [IQR, 279-405] in 2013-2019; P = .055), driven by a significant decline in open vascular surgery cases (median, 273 [IQR, 221-339] in 2007-2012 vs median, 156 [IQR, 128-181] in 2013-2019; P = .001). Case volumes of oAAA, LEB, and CEA declined by 44%, 40%, and 45%, respectively. Compared with vascular fellows, IVSR residents logged ∼2.5 times more aEVARs (median, 8; IQR, 2-11 vs median, 19; IQR, 8-27; P = .001) and ∼1.5 times more LEEIs (median, 60; IQR, 40-99 vs median, 93; IQR, 69-120; P = .018). Trainees were most confident (range, 90%-100%) in performing oAAA, EVAR, LEB, LEEI, and CEA after training, and least confident in performing oTAA/TAAA and aEVAR (20% and 49% confidence, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Operative case volumes of Canadian vascular surgery trainees since the introduction of IVSR program in 2012 have decreased, driven by declining exposure to open cases. However, trainees continue to receive adequate operative exposure to perform most standard vascular procedures confidently upon graduation.

Temporal Trends in Hospitalization for Lower Extremity Peripheral Artery Disease in Ontario: The Importance of Diabetes.

We sought to assess temporal trends in peripheral artery disease (PAD)-related hospitalization rates in Ontario. Trends in quarterly rates of PAD hospitalization per 100,000 Ontarians between 2006 and 2019 were assessed using autocorrelated linear regression. Stratified analyses according to age, sex, and most responsible diagnosis code type (with vs without diabetes-specific PAD codes) were performed. From 2006 to 2019, overall PAD hospitalizations did not decrease significantly when diabetes-specific codes were included. A significant decrease was observed among women and those older than 65 years old. Future studies of PAD epidemiology and outcomes using administrative data should include diabetic angiopathy.